Can interest in vocational education be stimulated? Applications to vocational education programs at upper secondary level 2006–2024

Abstract

This article examines the development of application patterns in vocational education and training (VET) at the upper secondary level in Iceland between 2006 and 2024. Despite long-standing policy goals to strengthen VET and increase participation, the proportion of students enrolling in vocational programmes has remained relatively low compared to academic programmes and in international comparison. While public discourse often frames vocational education as a unified concept, this paper challenges that assumption by analysing enrolment trends across different occupational fields and sectors, using application data from the national upper secondary school admission system and classifications provided by Icelandic sectoral councils.

The study is based on a comprehensive dataset encompassing all applications to Icelandic upper secondary schools from 2006 to 2024, categorized by programme type, occupational field, and applicant characteristics. By linking application records to recognized vocational fields, the analysis distinguishes general trends in vocational education from field-specific developments and identifies which areas have seen growth, stagnation, or decline in student interest.

Findings reveal a complex and uneven pattern. Although the overall share of vocational applications increased slightly in recent years—rising from around 30–35% of all applications between 2006 and 2019 to about 40% from 2020 onwards—this change is largely driven by increased demand in a few specific sectors. The building and construction trades, for example, saw a notable rebound in applications after a post-financial-crisis slump, probably reflecting economic recovery and labour market needs. Similarly, modest growth occurred in electrical and culinary arts and hospitality programmes.

Conversely, other sectors experienced declining interest. Applications to information and media technology programmes, for instance, dropped significantly after 2015. The same applies to beauty-related fields such as hairdressing, as well as printing and graphical design. In some cases, this decline may be due to institutional changes, reduced availability of programmes, or perceptions of limited career prospects. In other cases, vocational education has been absorbed into academic programmes, complicating traditional distinctions between educational pathways.

Notably, the study highlights a demographic split in VET applications. Young people applying directly after compulsory education are more likely to choose academic programmes, although their share of vocational applications has increased modestly in recent years. Older applicants, those applying three years or more after lower secondary graduation, are disproportionately represented in vocational applications. This suggests differing motivational factors and life circumstances between student groups, which policymakers must consider in VET planning.

The article further discusses conceptual challenges in defining and measuring VET. National and international classifications (e.g., ISCED codes) do not always align with public or institutional perceptions. Some programmes that are vocational in content are not classified as such, and vice versa. Moreover, while policy documents often refer to vocational education as a coherent domain, the data show that it encompasses a highly diverse set of fields with different labour market connections and dynamics within the education system.

By disaggregating data by occupational sector, the article demonstrates that there is no single trajectory for vocational education. Efforts to “strengthen VET” must therefore be sensitive to these internal differences. Even if recent increases in applications by young people are a positive development, this is mainly due to a growth in a few sectors which seem mostly driven by labour market conditions. There is no reason to believe young people would increasingly apply for VET programmes in other sectors if the labour market conditions in these particular fields were to change. Therefore, treating VET as a monolithic category can obscure challenges and opportunities within individual fields. Also, efforts to stimulate applications to VET must take the conditions for different sectors and fields into account.

In conclusion, the article calls for more nuanced policy approaches that address the specific conditions of different vocational sectors. Rather than aiming for general expansion in VET participation, targeted investments in infrastructure, programme development, and image-building in key fields may yield better results. Importantly, improving the social status and perceived value of vocational education remains a central concern–especially among younger students, for whom academic pathways are still seen as the default and more prestigious choice. Understanding the heterogeneity within vocational education is essential for designing policies that are not only symbolically supportive but also practically effective.