Scientific literacy of Icelandic 15-year-old students: Trends in PISA performance and the role of core curricular materials

Abstract

Scientific literacy among Icelandic adolescents has declined steadily over the past decade, as evidenced by PISA science results from 2009 to 2022. A sharp downturn between 2018 and 2022 left Iceland’s performance well below the OECD average and that of neighbouring Nordic countries, raising concerns about the effectiveness of science education in Iceland’s compulsory schools. PISA’s science framework (2015–2022) defines three key competencies for assessing science literacy; that is, the ability to: a) explain phenomena scientifically, b) evaluate and design scientific enquiry, and c) scientifically interpret data and evidence. It also defines three knowledge categories: a) content, b) procedural, and c) epistemic. This study examines how Icelandic students’ performance has evolved in these competency and knowledge areas and evaluates the extent to which lower-secondary science curricular material supports the competencies and knowledge that PISA measures.

Quantitative analysis was performed on data from PISA science tests conducted in 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018, and 2022, focusing on a set of science tasks administered in unchanged form across these years. Each item was classified by the PISA 2015–2022 framework into its competency category and knowledge category, and according to its scientific domain (life science, physical science, or earth and space science). For each category, the proportion of Icelandic students answering correctly was calculated, and changes over time were analysed to identify performance trends. A directed content analysis was conducted on seven core science textbooks (published 2010–2016) used in grades 8–10. All questions and exercises in these books were coded according to the same PISA framework categories, assessing which competencies and knowledge categories are emphasized or lacking in the current science curricular material.

Icelandic student performance in PISA science declined over the study period, showing a drop in correct response rates in all the competency and all the knowledge categories. However, the performance varied between years within each task, with some showing improved performance between years before falling again in 2022. Only one task revealed improved performance throughout the whole period. Average performance was relatively even across the three competency categories (with no significant differences in mean scores). However, “explaining phenomena scientifically” tasks included the greatest variability in difficulty, ranging from some of the easiest to some of the most challenging items. In terms of knowledge categories, students performed best on tasks requiring procedural knowledge while significantly worse on tasks requiring epistemic knowledge. By scientific domain, tasks in the earth and space sciences had the lowest correct response rate. The content analysis of textbooks revealed misalignment between the focus of the questions and exercises and the skills assessed by PISA. Most textbook tasks emphasised factual content and required students to explain phenomena, reflecting a strong focus on content knowledge. By contrast, very few exercises engaged students in designing experiments, interpreting data, or reflecting on the nature of scientific knowledge – activities needed to build procedural and especially epistemic knowledge. In summary, the current lower-secondary science curricular material supports only a limited subset of the competencies and knowledge areas that PISA evaluates.

These results suggest that key aspects of scientific literacy have been underemphasised in Iceland’s education system, contributing to substandard performance. In particular, the lack of focus on epistemic knowledge in the curricular material corresponds with students’ weak outcomes in that area. To address these gaps, the science curriculum material should place greater emphasis on the nature and processes of science with explicit discussion of how scientific knowledge is developed. Students should also have opportunities to develop their inquiry skills and their understanding of the nature of science. It is recognised that poor performance in reading comprehension impairs the pupils’ opportunities to develop scientific literacy, thus emphasising the need to provide reading comprehension strategies in science education. Aligning curriculum materials and instruction with the full breadth of scientific competencies and knowledge is essential for improving students’ scientific literacy and reversing the decline.